Fear The Wall - Answering the Burki Question: Is BVB’s Goalkeeper Good Enough?Heja BVB2021-02-19T12:00:00-08:00http://www.fearthewall.com/rss/stream/220313582021-02-19T12:00:00-08:002021-02-19T12:00:00-08:00Time for a Change: Which Goalkeepers Should Borussia Dortmund Target This Summer?
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<figcaption>Photo by ADRIAN DENNIS/POOL/AFP via Getty Images</figcaption>
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<p>If BVB are going to finally topple Bayern Munich, they will need a world-class goalkeeper. Who is that goalkeeper?</p> <p id="k0IWoP"><a href="https://www.fearthewall.com/2021/2/9/22267314/roman-burki-shot-stopping-goalkeeper-analysis-bundesliga-bvb-borussia-dortmund">Parts 1</a> and <a href="https://www.fearthewall.com/2021/2/11/22271580/shot-prevention-roman-burki-defending-distribution-goalkeeper-analysis-borussia-dortmund-bundesliga">2</a> in <a href="https://www.fearthewall.com/2021/2/9/22267317/roman-burki-borussia-bvb-goalkeeper-analysis-borussia-dortmund-bundesliga-bayern-munich-manuel-neuer">this series analyzing Roman Burki’s past, present, and future at Borussia Dortmund</a> have shown that the Swiss goalkeeper is a stereotypical modern goalkeeper, capable of sweeping up any threats in behind his defense, and comfortable with the ball at his feet. However, the analysis in the first two parts of the series demonstrated that Burki is also a sub-par shot-stopper. To add fuel to the fire, <a href="https://www.fearthewall.com/2021/2/15/22267552/is-it-time-for-borussia-dortmund-to-replace-roman-burki-bvb-bundesliga-goalkeeper-analysis">Part 3</a> highlighted the significant decline in his shot-stopping this season. It seems that now might be the time for BVB to look for a replacement.</p>
<p id="ATJbVe">To bring this series to a close, I will identify a shortlist of goalkeepers that could potentially replace Burki, before evaluating them all using the same criteria that was used to analyze Roman Burki in the previous articles. Finally, I will pick the goalkeeper that I believe should be BVB’s primary transfer target this summer.</p>
<h2 id="AAQuEC">Finding Burki’s Replacement</h2>
<p id="OPCdPg">I think Dortmund should be looking for an all-rounder, with a particular focus on shot-stopping. This may seem relatively obvious, but given some of the names that have been thrown out there, I don’t think it is. A traditional goalkeeper that is focused on shot-stopping would limit the way that BVB play, and I think that Marco Rose will want someone that can contribute with the ball at their feet and can protect the back line by sweeping up any threats in behind them. </p>
<p id="PxquU1">Additionally, I think Borussia Dortmund need a confident communicator that is comfortable marshalling his backline and keeping things organized defensively, and someone that is capable of being aggressive without being erratic or chaotic. BVB need someone that can keep things calm at the back and that is resistant to the chaos that develops in front of him.</p>
<h3 id="BB1xVu">The Shortlist of Potential BVB Goalkeepers</h3>
<p id="zBTA3j">The goalkeepers included in the shortlist are: Alphonse Areola, Walter Benitez, Koen Casteels, Martin Dubravka, Bartlomiej Dragowski, Paulo Gazzaniga, Rafal Gikiewicz, Mike Maignan, Neto, Predrag Rajkovic, and Thomas Strakosha. In addition to these 11 goalkeepers, I have included Roman Burki, Peter Gulacsi, Lukas Hradecky, Manuel Neuer, and Yann Sommer for the purpose of comparison.</p>
<p id="Z0HHm7">Reports have also linked Borussia Dortmund to Peter Gulacsi, Andre Onana, and Odysseas Vlachodimos, however, I won’t be analyzing these three in this article. If Onana or Gulacsi become available, I would view them as a top target for Dortmund, but I chose not to include them here because Onana is currently suspended for doping, and Gulacsi appeared to rule himself out after he was linked with the club. As to Vlachodimos, there simply isn’t enough data available for the Portuguese league for me to analyze him in this context. </p>
<p id="28akUa">This shortlist isn’t exhaustive. There are other good goalkeepers out there. Two such goalkeepers are Illan Meslier at Leeds and Robert Sanchez at Brighton. However, both are young and there is limited data available for them. This is a shortlist of potential targets, but I’m sure there are plenty names missing from the list.</p>
<h3 id="ZZTSxO">Analyzing the Shortlisted Goalkeepers</h3>
<h4 id="ANEiwO">Shot-Stopping</h4>
<p id="EaFxcX">Shot-stopping was the area of Burki’s game that was the most questionable. As a result, it should come as no surprise that almost all goalkeepers on the shortlist are better than Roman Burki as shot-stoppers.</p>
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<cite>Paul Johnson</cite>
<figcaption>PSxG %</figcaption>
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<p id="UaQB5o">In particular, Neto, Walter Benitez, Martin Dubravka, Alphonse Areola, and Paulo Gazzaniga are all tremendous shot-stoppers, conceding 10% fewer than their PSxG totals. All of these goalkeepers would place in the top ten best goalkeepers in the last four seasons (though Gazzaniga didn’t qualify in the previous analysis, because he had not played sufficient minutes), which is extremely impressive.</p>
<h4 id="1xv0di">Shot Prevention</h4>
<p id="wb39CD">Turning to shot prevention, Burki’s performances are a bit more of a mixed bag. He is at best average when facing crosses into the box, and compared with the goalkeepers on the shortlist, he again looks average.</p>
<p id="soFAJF">The standout performers when it comes to cross handling are Mike Maignan and Koen Casteels. They are the only two goalkeepers on the shortlist that successfully stop more than 10% of crosses into their penalty area, which is impressive. For comparison, Maignan and Casteels ranked third and fourth of all goalkeepers over the last four seasons. </p>
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<cite>Paul Johnson</cite>
<figcaption>% Crosses Stopped</figcaption>
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<p id="ghNYJV">In addition to these two keepers, Gikiewicz, Rajkovic, Dubravka, and Areola all have higher success rates handling crosses than Burki. Gikiewicz, Areola, and Rajkovic also concede a lower share of goals from set pieces, however it’s probably not fair to judge goalkeepers on this basis, as this is so heavily influenced by their teammates.</p>
<p id="p9K02F">The other aspect of shot prevention, and an element that I think should be a priority for a BVB goalkeeper, is sweeping. I think that Burki’s profile is more or less correct for Borussia Dortmund, but the club needs a better version of him (sorry Roman). When it comes to defensive actions outside their penalty area, Burki is actually pretty good. In fact, there is no one on the shortlist that is clearly much better than him on this front. </p>
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<img alt=" " data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/UIOkScfhF9iKAzlWgIBpUYsttBE=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22311712/sweepers_comp.png">
<cite>Paul Johnson</cite>
<figcaption>Defensive Actions Outside the Penalty Area</figcaption>
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<p id="TO1ErV">However, Koen Casteels and Alphonse Areola are pretty close, and given that the average distance of Areola’s defensive actions is greater than Burki’s, I think he just about edges Burki out.</p>
<h4 id="Mszn7Q">Distribution</h4>
<p id="6Swrbv">On the distribution front, there are some excellent performances by the shortlisted goalkeepers, especially when it comes to long-ball distribution. There are four potential transfer targets that are significantly more accurate than Roman Burki when playing it long: Rafal Gikiewicz, Koen Casteels, Thomas Strakosha, and Alphonse Areola. </p>
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<cite>Paul Johnson</cite>
<figcaption>Buildup & Distribution</figcaption>
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<p id="MlizFn">Of those four keepers, Strakosha is about level with Burki when it comes to total pass completion, of which Burki performs pretty well, and Areola is way out ahead. In fact, Areola’s pass completion percentage is over 80%, and he’s the only goalkeeper that comes close to Manuel Neuer on that front. Despite his incredibly impressive pass accuracy, he actually attempts fewer passes and touches the ball less frequently than his compatriots. I don’t think this is driven by a lack of ability with the ball at his feet though. I think he’d be very capable of contributing offensively if asked. </p>
<p id="WJv0Cq">I think there are four standouts when it comes to offensive distribution: Areola, Casteels, Strakosha, and Walter Benitez, who is pretty similar to Burki in terms of long-ball distribution (slightly better, in fact), while also maintaining a high total completion percentage. Finally, Casteels deserves mention for his very solid numbers while being extremely active in the buildup. He’s a much more active part of the offense than the other standouts, making his performance all the more impressive.</p>
<h3 id="jC4v0b">Picking BVB’s Next Goalkeeper</h3>
<p id="RlN7yr">Having analyzed the goalkeeper shortlist in terms of shot-stopping, shot prevention, and distribution, I have been able to identify five goalkeepers that I think BVB should consider signing in the summer: Areola, Benitez, Casteels, Rajkovic, and Strakosha.</p>
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<cite>Paul Johnson</cite>
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<p id="lB98ES">However, I think Rajkovic and Benitez are better served as fallback options. Rajkovic is a little too erratic so he might not be a great fit for BVB, and while I think his long-ball distribution is actually a lot better than the numbers suggest, he is a little awkward in possession, and Benitez’s shot prevention is pretty limited, and having recently signed an extension with Nice, I think BVB would be better served targeting the other keepers on the list.</p>
<p id="XOljve">In reality, I’d be pretty happy if BVB signed any of my top three keepers, Areola, Casteels, and Strakosha. However, I think there is one goalkeeper that is far and away better than the rest: Alphonse Areola. He is an impressive physical specimen, an excellent technician, and he plays with a confidence that makes him a good fit for Borussia Dortmund. His lateral movement and reflexes are tremendous, and coupled with his size, he is able to play aggressively, sitting back on his line and daring his opponents to have a go, but with the capability to close the angle at impressive speed.</p>
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<cite>Photo by Glyn Kirk/PA Images via Getty Images</cite>
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<p id="ZaXcKl">The French goalkeeper has spent the majority of his career at PSG, but has also spent time on loan at <a href="https://www.managingmadrid.com">Real Madrid</a>, Lens, Bastia, and Villareal. He is now plying his trade on loan at Fulham, where he has been briliant so far this season. He is a vital part of Fulham’s campaign to stay in the Premier League, and his availability is likely to hinge on this effort. Fulham have an option-to-buy, and if they avoid relegation, it is highly likely they will trigger this clause and sign Areola on a permanent deal.</p>
<p id="a72Oeq">If they do end up going down, I think BVB should move to sign Areola immediately. It will likely cost around €30m, but for a 27 year old goalkeeper with a great skillset and plenty of experience, that is a bargain.</p>
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<p lang="en" dir="ltr">Assured. <br><br>Which <a href="https://twitter.com/AreolaOfficiel?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">@AreolaOfficiel</a> save was the best? <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/TOTFUL?src=hash&ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#TOTFUL</a> <a href="https://t.co/1CblZxIDAe">pic.twitter.com/1CblZxIDAe</a></p>— Fulham Football Club (@FulhamFC) <a href="https://twitter.com/FulhamFC/status/1349689477850148870?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 14, 2021</a>
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<p id="OfX8VQ">If Areola isn’t available, then Casteels and Strakosha are good consolation prizes. Casteels is tremendous all-rounder that is familiar with the league, while Strakosha is a little less of a statistical standout, but age is on his side. I’d be confident that either of these goalkeepers would be an immediate upgrade, but if BVB really want to challenge for a title, I think Areola is the world-class keeper that the team needs.</p>
<h2 id="UFgVNg">Conclusion</h2>
<p id="3VKGQF">So we are finally coming to the end of this lengthy series analyzing Roman Burki. I came into this with the hope that I might be able to settle some of the debate about his performances at Borussia Dortmund. In reality, I think opinions are probably so entrenched at this point that this won’t change things a great deal. Nonetheless, I think this series has demonstrated that Burki is a decent all-rounder, but his shot-stopping is below average, and he seems to be a bad fit for this chaotic, mentally fragile Borussia Dortmund side. </p>
<p id="AYMz6q">With all this in mind, I have identified Alphonse Areola as the ideal replacement for Burki. I think he is a tremendously gifted keeper, with the kind of mentality that would help cure some of the chaos we see all too often. If Areola isn’t available, I think Koen Casteels and Thomas Strakosha are both very solid alternatives, and if Onana or Gulacsi are available, they would immediately become excellent alternatives to Areola. If Onana is available, I would put him level with Areola, and I’d put Gulacsi just behind them both, held back only by his age.</p>
<h2 id="ceE7hl">Your Thoughts?</h2>
<p id="1DVEy7">There we have it. Alphonse Areola. Go and get him Watzke! What do you guys think? Is Areola the man for the job?</p>
https://www.fearthewall.com/2021/2/19/22269118/which-goalkeepers-should-bvb-pursue-this-summer-borussia-dortmund-areola-onana-casteels-strakoshaPaul Johnson2021-02-15T15:33:34-08:002021-02-15T15:33:34-08:00Is it Time for Borussia Dortmund to Part Ways with Roman Burki?
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<img alt="Bayer 04 Leverkusen v Borussia Dortmund - Bundesliga" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/ih_N6C65AwI4HEpLWqaM9sNDGiM=/0x0:1515x1010/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/68822442/1230773768.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Photo by Alex Gottschalk/DeFodi Images via Getty Images</figcaption>
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<p>Have Roman Burki’s performances this season declined to a point that it is time for Borussia Dortmund to replace him?</p> <p id="zcmMfb">Last week I <a href="https://www.fearthewall.com/2021/2/9/22267317/roman-burki-borussia-bvb-goalkeeper-analysis-borussia-dortmund-bundesliga-bayern-munich-manuel-neuer">analyzed Roman Burki’s performances</a> in the last four seasons (<a href="https://www.fearthewall.com/2021/2/9/22267314/roman-burki-shot-stopping-goalkeeper-analysis-bundesliga-bvb-borussia-dortmund">here</a> and <a href="https://www.fearthewall.com/2021/2/11/22271580/shot-prevention-roman-burki-defending-distribution-goalkeeper-analysis-borussia-dortmund-bundesliga">here</a>), and compared <a href="https://www.fearthewall.com">Borussia Dortmund</a>’s #1 with other goalkeepers in the big five leagues. In this article I will evaluate his performances so far this season. I will compare his performances with previous seasons, again with goalkeepers across the big five leagues. </p>
<p id="iSBeVo">It is worth noting that there is a degree of uncertainty with these numbers, and this is a greater issue with this analysis than with the previous two articles. Half a season’s worth of data is a relatively limited sample, and that’s especially true with measures like PSxG, which incur high degrees of uncertainty anyway. Therefore, this article should be taken with a large pinch of salt. That doesn’t render the conclusions useless, but it does mean anything that is significantly different from the general trends seen in the previous articles should be viewed with a little skepticism. </p>
<h2 id="5DZpux">How has Roman Burki Performed this Season?</h2>
<p id="JK02u0">While he is currently out injured, Burki has played a total of 16 games so far this season, conceding 26 goals. That is about 1.6 goals a game, which isn’t great for a top team like Borussia Dortmund.</p>
<p id="jfG3zZ">As has been discussed in previous articles, the Borussia Dortmund defense has done Roman Burki no favors. However, there have been a number of occasions this season that have led fans to criticize the goalkeeper too. There’s definitely a sense that this season has seen Burki’s worst qualities amplified, and the best part of his game have become much less prominent. Lets look at how things have changed.</p>
<h3 id="SLW7Pm">Shot-Stopping</h3>
<p id="0TOO0H">Simply put, Burki’s shot-stopping has been terrible so far this season. He ranks 4th worst out of 82 goalkeepers, with a PSxG % underperformance of -20.4%. This means Burki has conceded a little over 5 goals more than PSxG suggests the average keeper would concede. He’s averaging an underperformance of -0.33 per 90, which is really bad.</p>
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<img alt=" " data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/2G8RUn7U7VI_O2PlTv_WohB9-dM=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22305356/psxg2021.png">
<cite>Paul Johnson</cite>
<figcaption>PSxG %</figcaption>
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<p id="kGnPUb">It’s certainly possible that Burki’s numbers will even out a little bit, as the season progresses. But the underperformance is concerning, and it is definitely contributing to BVB’s woes this season.</p>
<p id="sQDIQq">Burki’s PSxG/Shot has decreased slightly, from around 0.33 to 0.28, but the number of shots he is facing has increased from 3.8 to 4.5 shots on target per 90, which is also above average for the season.</p>
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<cite>Paul Johnson</cite>
<figcaption>Goalkeeper Workload</figcaption>
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<p id="dngOXa">So while the shot quality Burki is facing is slightly lower, he is also facing more shots, which seems to even things out. </p>
<p id="OFYQOv">The impression that I’ve had so far this season is that Burki hasn’t made a lot of glaring errors, but there has been a number of incidents where it feels like he should have done better. That seems to be supported by the PSxG numbers. There are few games this season where Roman Burki has conceded considerably more goals than his PSxG, but he rarely overperforms, and this has gradually chipped away at his PSxG %, leaving a really poor overall performance.</p>
<p id="hdetZa">An example of a game where he considerably underperformed PSxG is the 4-2 loss to Borussia Monchengladbach. While Burki conceded four goals, the PSxG for the game was 2.3. This -1.7 deficit is likely driven by the third and fourth goals, but I think the second goal deserves some attention too, because it highlights an issue he has had on occasion in previous seasons.</p>
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<p id="aByPK6">In this particular incident, I think Burki gets minimal sight on the ball, thanks to Reus and Can standing together in a secondary wall, and seeing it late makes things very difficult for the goalkeeper. This gives Burki very little time to react, and leads to his parrying the ball into the opponent’s path. Nonetheless, this is something Burki has struggled with on occasion, sometimes misjudging the flight of the ball and parrying it back into the opponent’s path.</p>
<h3 id="yUwiDk">Shot Prevention & Distribution</h3>
<p id="F0cVP6">While there has been a significant decline in his shot-stopping, the rest of Burki’s game looks similar to previous seasons.</p>
<p id="bVkwfc">Shot prevention was a mixed bag for Burki, and that has been the case this season too. He ranks 34th for percentage of crosses stopped but he also sits in the top 20 for goals scored from set pieces as a share of total goals against. This was also on display against Gladbach.</p>
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<p id="1Vhnk5">As is the case with almost all of the examples I’ve used so far, Burki is not solely to blame for what happens here. First, it is a quality delivery, and a very well-placed header. It’s also made a lot easier by the fact that Can is late to follow the run (though it’s not clear to me if that is actually his man, he may have picked up that someone else had let him go). Burki doesn’t help himself though. He appears to consider coming out to the cross, and he commits quite heavily, and has to get back in place. He is back in position by the time the header heads goalwards, but perhaps if he hadn’t strayed initially, he would have been better placed to make an attempt at a save.</p>
<p id="GzfLWT">Interestingly, Burki ranks 75th of 82 goalkeepers for defensive actions outside the penalty area (#OPA/90). I’m not sure what to make of this really. But it’s an interesting change from previous seasons, when he was among the highest for #OPA/90.</p>
<p id="IVx8Mo">Finally, when it comes to distribution, Burki’s performances are again relatively similar to previous seasons. However, he has been performing slightly better when playing long passes. He ranks 11th in terms of pass completion, 45th for touches per 90, and 30th for long pass completion. </p>
<p id="CEzJte">The shot prevention and distribution performances this season are pretty similar to previous seasons. I think it’s fair to consider Burki’s performances in this regard as about the same as previous seasons. However, the significant decline in shot-stopping is the biggest issue.</p>
<h2 id="bZbXD9">What Next for BVB & Burki?</h2>
<p id="jt38sI">Based on reports coming out of West Germany, and the litany of rumors linking Borussia Dortmund to goalkeepers all over Europe, it seems highly likely that the club are ready to move on from Roman Burki. But is this the right call? </p>
<p id="42Iqvt">On the balance of evidence presented over the course of the analysis in this series, I think it is the right call. I like Burki, and as Parts 1 & 2 showed, he does do a lot of things well, and he is not solely responsible for Borussia Dortmund’s defensive issues. However, I think Burki and the BVB defense are a bad fit, and a new face might improve the situation. Burki seems to have some confidence issues, and this impacts his performances. Playing behind a leaky, error-prone defense and in a team that capitulates under the slightest pressure is surely not a recipe for success. I think BVB need a goalkeeper that can lead the defense, and someone that has an unshakeable confidence and conviction in their actions.</p>
<p id="UwzS39">Regardless, Burki’s performances this season have been poor. It’s possible that his shot-stopping will improve, but it’s not as though he has been lights out in previous seasons. Borussia Dortmund need a world class goalkeeper that can dig them out of holes and win them games. I don’t think Burki is that guy, so I think they should look for an upgrade. In the final article in the series, I will identify several names that I think the club should pursue as Burki’s replacement in the summer.</p>
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https://www.fearthewall.com/2021/2/15/22267552/is-it-time-for-borussia-dortmund-to-replace-roman-burki-bvb-bundesliga-goalkeeper-analysisPaul Johnson2021-02-11T13:08:49-08:002021-02-11T13:08:49-08:00An Ounce of Prevention: Roman Burki’s Defending & Distribution
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<img alt="Borussia Dortmund v 1. FC Koeln - Bundesliga" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/BHOL9sKLwYapoxFxQJw0b60EGX4=/0x0:2775x1850/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/68805887/1229834157.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Photo by Alexandre Simoes/Borussia Dortmund via Getty Images</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>How does Roman Burki fare when it comes to other elements of a goalkeeper’s duties?</p> <p id="BNMCNv">There are few BVB players for whom more ink has been spilled trying to decide whether or not they’re actually any good, so you might think writing thousands of words in a four-part series trying to give a definitive answer to the Roman Burki question might be a waste of time. You might conclude that the kind of idiot that spends so long on such pointless content must not value their own time at all. They must have no shame.</p>
<p id="17zKQc">Anyway, this is Part 2 of my <a href="https://www.fearthewall.com/2021/2/9/22267317/roman-burki-borussia-bvb-goalkeeper-analysis-borussia-dortmund-bundesliga-bayern-munich-manuel-neuer">four-part series analyzing Roman Burki</a>. In <a href="https://www.fearthewall.com/2021/2/9/22267314/roman-burki-shot-stopping-goalkeeper-analysis-bundesliga-bvb-borussia-dortmund">Part 1</a> I looked at the BVB goalkeeper’s shot-stopping, and compared his performance with keepers in the big five leagues in Europe. I came to the conclusion that Burki’s shot-stopping is sub-par, but that he is not helped by his defense.</p>
<p id="8DkIE9">Today I will look at the other aspects of a goalkeeper’s job: shot-prevention and distribution. We often focus too heavily on the shot-stopping element of goalkeeping, and neglect the importance of a well-rounded keeper that can contribute on both ends of the ball, and in a number of ways.</p>
<h2 id="oISUM8">Shot Prevention</h2>
<p id="Z152ac">I will be focusing on two different types of shot prevention, that represent two different kinds of goalkeeping: sweeping and stopping crosses. A great goalkeeper can anticipate danger and intercept it before it turns into a shot. That can take the form of through balls and lofted passes in behind their defense, or crosses and cut-backs into the penalty area. But these forms of shot prevention represent two goalkeeping archetypes, the modern and the traditional keeper.</p>
<h3 id="w0gr8I">Sweeping</h3>
<p id="k2cpAD">The sweeper keeper is not a modern invention, but it has become increasingly popular, in recent years, among top teams. Liverpool, <a href="https://www.bavarianfootballworks.com">Bayern Munich</a>, and <a href="https://bitterandblue.sbnation.com">Manchester City</a> have all benefited from goalkeepers that can operate far outside their own penalty area. </p>
<p id="yBrEqG">In offense, teams benefit from having a goalkeeper that can play at the base of the backline because it creates a numerical advantage. A ball-playing goalkeeper turns a team into 11 outfield players, and that man advantage allows them to create overloads in the buildup, making ball progression easier. In defense, a sweeper keeper helps a team to compress the pitch when the opponent has the ball. By providing defensive cover in behind the defensive line, the midfield and defense are able to push further up the pitch, reduce the space within which the opponent can play, and more effectively press and regain possession. The presence of a goalkeeper sweeping up behind the defense reduces the threat of balls in behind the high line.</p>
<p id="A9kdBp">As was highlighted in the first article in this series, Burki faces a below average number of shots on target. Is this because of Burki’s shot prevention? While he has made one or two howlers, most memorably against RB Leipzig last season, this is an area that Burki has performed admirably.</p>
<div class="c-wide-block"> <figure class="e-image">
<img alt=" " data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/z-IYvq9eSQq_3fxCY30scVnOO7E=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22295798/sweepers.png">
<cite>Paul Johnson</cite>
<figcaption>Defensive Actions Outside the Penalty Area</figcaption>
</figure>
</div>
<p id="4Bp2qS">While Burki isn’t among the most elite sweepers, he still compares favorably with most goalkeepers, making a significant number of defensive actions outside his penalty area (~0.85 #OPA/90) and far off his own line (15.425 yards). He ranks 17th of the 74 goalkeepers in the subset in both categories. I think it’s reasonable to conclude that Burki’s sweeping probably contributes to suppressing the quantity of shots he faces. </p>
<h3 id="JLkNEU">Cross Handling</h3>
<p id="1VV89l">While Burki is a good sweeper, he is less effective handling crosses, ranking 41st of 74, and stopping around 7.6% of crosses that he faces. This is almost bang on the mean average of 7.7%.</p>
<div class="c-wide-block"> <figure class="e-image">
<img alt=" " data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/a_PxJ81tDGFoXpwea2PNOCncdNo=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22295862/crosses.png">
<cite>Paul Johnson</cite>
<figcaption>Percentage of Crosses Stopped</figcaption>
</figure>
</div>
<p id="Wadk4g">This is actually a lot better than I expected, because it has always seemed like a weakness in Burki’s game. This is in part due to BVB’s issues dealing with set pieces. Burki ranks 25th in terms of the share of total goals conceded that come from set pieces, which is not great. When you look back at the set piece goals that Dortmund concede, it is clear that no one is covering themselves in glory.</p>
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<p id="5E6yYP">Burki often seems to get caught ball-watching but, and I cannot stress this enough, <strong>ABSOLUTELY EVERYBODY </strong>is doing the same thing. In this Koln example, the ball is knocked on by one of the bodies at the near post, and basically everyone in black (and green) appears frozen in time. The worst offender is Nico Schulz. I’m not sure if he was tasked with defending the far post or marking the Koln runner at the back, but what is clear is that he is doing neither of these things. However, Burki does his bit, reacting slowly to the play, and by the time he responds he is out of position and has to try and make a save with his hands, instead of being able to spread himself to try and get any part of his body in front of the header.</p>
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<p id="gZG6Wz">In the Werder Bremen example above, I think Burki is again caught napping, and fails to respond to the changing trajectory of the ball. As the ball passes by him, he doesn’t adjust his position to get in front of the ball, and it is well past him by the time he tries to get across the goalmouth. It seems like he is caught in two minds, because the ball flashes in front of him, and he may have been able to get to it if he comes to claim it. But once again, there are about seven BVB players stood still, while three whole Werder Bremen players stroll on by in search of the ball. <strong>WHAT IS ANYONE DOING HERE?!</strong></p>
<p id="VFrTGn">In addition to his penchant for ball-watching and suspect lateral movement, he also seems to be reluctant to come and challenge for crosses when they are within range. It may be because Burki lacks the size and power to come out and claim crosses, but the lack of a physical presence that can come out and make a clearance or claim the ball does make the job harder for BVB. However, it is also clear that his teammates give him absolutely no help.</p>
<h2 id="d3rNC0">Distribution</h2>
<p id="1DOUh1">While we tend to think of goalkeepers as defensive players, they also serve an important role in the offense, especially in possession-heavy and dominant teams. A goalkeeper that is effective with the ball at their feet can make the short passes that help a team retain possession and act as an outlet when the defense is under pressure, and playing accurate long passes that can evade a high press and spring dangerous counters when teams push far up the pitch. A goalkeeper that offers this dual threat can be extremely valuable because it creates a difficult trade-off for opponents. They have to choose between pressing high and risking long balls in behind the defense, or giving the opponent too much space to retain possession and build offense in their own half.</p>
<p id="DWXy71">Distribution is an area of the game that Roman Burki is, for the most part, doing pretty well. He is a constant presence in BVB’s ball retention, and he’s a reliable outlet for his teammates. Burki has averaged 37.1 touches per 90 in the last four seasons, ranking 13th among the goalkeepers in the subset, about 10 fewer touches than Sommer, who tops the list. He also averages 74.6% pass completion, ranking 15th among all goalkeepers, around 10% lower than Ederson, who has the highest pass completion.</p>
<div class="c-wide-block"> <figure class="e-image">
<img alt=" " data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/nHPLbgH_NKuZLE48Muj6-JS-bkY=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22295877/distribution.png">
<cite>Paul Johnson</cite>
<figcaption>Goalkeeper Distribution</figcaption>
</figure>
</div>
<p id="LUBh4D">The above figure offers further context, and paints Burki in a positive light. Burki is averaging 13.2 long passes per 90, which is a little lower than the average of 16. Whereas Burki averages 28.2 passes per 90, which is slightly higher than the average of 24.1. Further, Burki makes significantly more long passes than many of the goalkeepers with higher pass completion percentages (the likes of Ederson, Neuer, ter Stegen, and Alisson). The fact he is able to maintain high pass accuracy while making so many long passes reflects well on the BVB goalkeeper.</p>
<p id="Tg6Hc5">That said, Burki’s long-ball distribution is actually where his lie accuracy tails off considerably. </p>
<div class="c-wide-block"> <figure class="e-image">
<img alt=" " data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/SYNWpkofH0H_bd8YivDZfTjQR-U=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22295881/pass_completion.png">
<cite>Paul Johnson</cite>
<figcaption>Long Pass Completion</figcaption>
</figure>
</div>
<p id="pPKkXI">Burki ranks 57th of 74, completing about 36.6% of his long passes. His poor long-ball distribution was on full display against Bayer Leverkusen earlier in the season.</p>
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<p id="cNQ3q9">The pass was right into the path of a Leverkusen defender’s head, and they were able to turn it over and immediately put <a href="https://www.fearthewall.com">Borussia Dortmund</a> under pressure. To Leverkusen’s credit, it was a brilliant ball by Leon Bailey, and Moussa Diaby does well to pick the run, but the play all starts with Burki’s wayward lofted pass.</p>
<p id="t6wcgv">While Burki is an active part of the BVB buildup, his inaccuracy when playing it long hurts the team. Because teams know he poses little threat when knocking it in behind the opposition, they have less to fear when pushing further up the pitch. While several of BVB’s defenders are capable of playing these dangerous long passes, they really need Burki to be able to provide a similar threat too.</p>
<h2 id="lJZW05">Conclusion</h2>
<p id="LF6jqA">The first part in this series evaluating Roman Burki highlighted his sub-par performance as a shot-stopper in the last four seasons. This article, however, has painted Burki in a more positive light. It’s clear that he is a well-rounded modern goalkeeper. He’s a solid sweeper and capable with the ball at his feet, but he struggles when it comes to facing crosses into the penalty area, and his long-ball distribution is poor.</p>
<p id="GVAIpy">The next article in the series will look at Burki’s performances this season, and use this and everything we have learned in the first two articles to evaluate where Burki and BVB stand now.</p>
https://www.fearthewall.com/2021/2/11/22271580/shot-prevention-roman-burki-defending-distribution-goalkeeper-analysis-borussia-dortmund-bundesligaPaul Johnson2021-02-09T16:05:24-08:002021-02-09T16:05:24-08:00Roman Burki’s Shot-Stopping: Swiss Fortress or Leaky Bucket?
<figure>
<img alt="FC Augsburg v Borussia Dortmund - Bundesliga" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/8LBkbFbR71MeqTa23ulkQUQk5DM=/0x0:3000x2000/1310x873/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/68795634/1228767339.0.jpg" />
<figcaption>Photo by Peter Fastl/DeFodi Images via Getty Images</figcaption>
</figure>
<p>How does Roman Burki’s shot-stopping compare with goalkeepers in the big five leagues?</p> <p id="Un6VOg">Since joining <a href="https://www.fearthewall.com">Borussia Dortmund</a> from SC Freiburg, Roman Burki has made over 200 appearances for the club. In that time, he has faced a lot of criticism, and has never really won over a section of the fan base. In this article, Part One in the series, I will evaluate Burki’s shot-stopping over the last four seasons and compare him to other goalkeepers in Europe’s big five leagues.</p>
<h2 id="xT88Yr">Measuring Shot-Stopping Over/Underperformance </h2>
<p id="BPINfX">In order to evaluate shot-stopping, I measure the number of goals a goalkeeper concedes as a percentage of post-shot expected goals (PSxG). I refer to this as PSxG %. The figure below plots goalkeeper PSxG % in the big five leagues across Europe, and places goalkeeper over/underperformance in rank order. Burki has slightly underperformed expectations (averaging a little over -5%) over the last four seasons, falling into bottom half of the performance table.</p>
<div class="c-wide-block"> <figure class="e-image">
<img alt=" " data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/6Zvv2Q6PjLEeM8GE8frJeCmhVwE=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22287115/psxg.png">
<cite>Paul Johnson</cite>
<figcaption>PSxG % Over/Underperformance</figcaption>
</figure>
</div>
<p id="Oe5ZTr">To add context to Burki’s performance, we can also consider his workload, and the quality of shots that BVB concede. Interestingly, Burki faces a high PSxG/Shot, which is the average value of the shots on target that the keeper faces. Burki’s average PSxG/Shot is 0.328, which would place him 19th out of 74 goalkeepers that have clocked up over 6000 minutes. This shows that Burki isn’t being helped a great deal by his defenders. The figure below plots PSxG % and shots on target against per 90, as a further illustration of workload. </p>
<div class="c-wide-block"> <figure class="e-image">
<img alt=" " data-mask-text="false" src="https://cdn.vox-cdn.com/thumbor/tkaNu_uH9FHtPJeZFps4Ykreaww=/400x0/filters:no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22287131/gk_workload.png">
<cite>Paul Johnson</cite>
<figcaption>Shot-Stopping Performance & Workload</figcaption>
</figure>
</div>
<p id="svoTfg">Burki sits just inside the bottom-left quadrant, as a not busy and underperforming goalkeeper. This is interesting because it paints a slightly different picture than the PSxG/Shot figures. While BVB are not conceding a huge amount of shots, the shots they face are high value, making Burki’s job a lot more difficult. </p>
<p id="85ib4O">This certainly suggests that Burki’s struggles are in part due to the poor defense in front of him. Dortmund concede an average of almost four shots on target per game, and those shots, on average, are worth a little over 0.3 PSxG. That means Burki is dealing with around 1.2 PSxG/90. It’s hard to succeed in those circumstances, but it’s also true that Burki has underperformed expectations too. Burki’s PSxG % highlights his sub-par performance in recent years, but are there any recurring problems that contribute to this?</p>
<h2 id="fTb2vc">Explaining Burki’s PSxG % Underperformance</h2>
<h3 id="SleUwL">Positioning</h3>
<p id="wBulG5">Burki’s positioning has been criticized before, and while I think there are some issues, I think it’s also worth pointing out that the examples highlighted below are all negative. It would also be possible to go through and highlight moments where Burki’s positioning has been perfect too, so this is worth keeping in mind. </p>
<p id="pWbZyU">First, I want to touch on Joshua Kimmich’s chipped goal against Burki last season, which earned <a href="https://www.bavarianfootballworks.com">Bayern Munich</a> all three points and effectively wrapped up the title.</p>
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<p id="aIQT0T">There has been plenty of discussion about this goal, so I’m not going to rework old material (for a comprehensive breakdown of this goal, check out this <a href="https://btsgoalies.com/2020/05/28/gk-analysis-roman-burki-error-der-klassiker/">Between the Sticks</a> piece). However, it’s fair to say that Burki was far off his line, and stepped forward anticipating a potential 1v1. This gave Kimmich an opportunity, which he took very well.</p>
<p id="vaYw92">The Kimmich goal highlights one of Burki’s persistent flaws. He tends to anticipate what the opponent is going to do, and steps up into no-mans land. This might help to explain some of the success that opponents have had shooting from distance. Burki tends to position himself a little higher in the box, and you can often see him stepping up anticipating potential threats in behind his defense, however, when those moments don’t materialize, Burki’s position doesn’t give him enough time to judge the trajectory of the shot and make a save. Kimmich’s goal was as much about Burki’s forward momentum as it was Burki being stranded, but we have also seen him step too high up in his box and get beat by a long-distance strike on a number of occasions this season.</p>
<p id="3Acprq">Another area in which Burki’s positioning raises some question marks is when facing shots to his far post, from tight angles. I think he sometimes gets caught out overprotecting his near post. There’s an inherent trade-off between the near and far post when a goalkeeper takes up their position to defend a shot from wide. As <a href="https://go.redirectingat.com?id=66960X1516590&xs=1&url=https%3A%2F%2Ftheathletic.com%2F1164478%2F2019%2F08%2F27%2Fdavid-de-gea-and-the-near-post-myth%2F&referrer=sbnation.com&sref=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.fearthewall.com%2F2021%2F2%2F9%2F22267314%2Froman-burki-shot-stopping-goalkeeper-analysis-bundesliga-bvb-borussia-dortmund" rel="sponsored nofollow noopener" target="_blank">Kasper Schmeichel once said</a>: </p>
<blockquote><p id="4O1Aav">Anyone who has played in goal knows it’s a huge area and you try to cover the whole goal. You can’t try and cover the whole goal and guarantee the ball won’t go in at the near post if it’s a great shot. Near post, far post, you try to cover it all and you’re not happy if it goes in anywhere.</p></blockquote>
<p id="oi6U3v">The goalkeeper wants to protect against the opponent’s best shot on goal, but doing so can open up other areas. If you cover the near post too aggressively, you increase the angle for the opponent to hit the far corner. This seems to be something that Burki does on occasion. </p>
<div id="0pfB7j"><div data-anthem-component="gallery:10325095"></div></div>
<p id="2cyj4w">Above are four different situations that I’ve identified, where Burki seems to be too far over to his near post. The Leipzig and Paderborn examples are more egregious, but I think there is a case to be made that he is slightly off center in the Koln and Werder Bremen examples too. The dashed line represents the line between the ball and the approximate center point of the goal, and the red area shows the additional angle that I think Burki is giving up by overprotecting his near post.</p>
<p id="0KS6Av"><em>Note: Due to the different, and less than perfect, camera angles in each example, there is plenty of uncertainty here. </em></p>
<h3 id="RNvQ7Y">Footwork</h3>
<p id="hhKTrh">However, the Koln goal demonstrates that there is more to these situations than the angle at which a goalkeeper faces the opponent.</p>
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<p id="8c4kut">This is an excellent finish, and sometimes the opponent is going to score from tight angles, and it isn’t anyone’s fault. However, in this instance, I think Burki is slightly too close to his near post, and he appears to get his foot out to make the save a little too late. He appears to plant his feet after a short bound, making it difficult for him to get his feet from under him in order to make the save. By the time he is able to get his left foot out to try to stop the shot, it is on its way past him.</p>
<p id="bXE5xj">Another instance where this seemed to hurt Burki is the headed goal he conceded to Lewandowski earlier in the season. The header was perfectly placed, so he may not have got it either way, but Burki seemed to have his feet planted and he was unable to take a produce enough power in his leap to get near the ball.</p>
<h3 id="dl0Lut">Confidence & Burki’s Hesitations</h3>
<p id="7MqZ5W">While there are some technical question marks, I think Burki’s biggest issue is mental in nature. He sometimes hesitates before making decisions, which delays his response or leads him to take actions that lack conviction. I think this is a confidence issue, more than anything, though I’m unsure whether it’s a lack of confidence in himself or a leaky and error prone defense that leaves Burki so mentally taxed that his cognitive function is impaired. </p>
<p id="K73oVi">Unfortunately for Burki, there is no room for hesitation or self-doubt. Burki seems acutely aware of the possibility that his decisions might be wrong, and instead of committing to a decision, he sometimes seems uncertain. One example of this is RB Leipzig’s third goal last season:</p>
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<p id="dB1WdK">Burki is slow to respond to Dayot Upamecano switching the play, and he is in a sub-optimal position as he tries to close Nordi Mukiele down. He comes out and tries to spread himself, but Mukiele is able to dink it over him for it to fall to Patrick Schick to finish.</p>
<p id="dfprSU">As is often the case, this goal doesn’t lie squarely at Burki’s feet, as Guerreiro goes wandering and leaves Mukiele completely open. That said, Burki was slow to respond, and he seems caught in two minds when he spreads to defend Mukiele, his momentum carrying him past the RB Leipzig player, as it is dinked over his right arm. At this point he is too far out to get back and get anything on Schick’s effort, though the fact that Schick gets a virtually uncontested shot is not Burki’s fault.</p>
<p id="aMajAz">Against Hoffenheim, a general lack of control across the BVB backline, and a botched effort at intercepting a cross into the box leads to a scramble on the edge of the six yard box, and Burki seems in two minds as to how to react.</p>
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<p id="3O3Dpf">This goal is a good illustration of the fact that Burki’s defense don’t do him any favors either, and I think it’s fair to question whether his hesitation is in part due to a lack of confidence in his defense. However, I don’t think he covers himself in glory here. Burki appears to think about coming for the ball when it loops up into the air. Instead, he drops back closer to his line, which I think is the right call, and when the ball bounces free in the six-yard box, he comes out to engage, but seems to be torn between spreading, smothering, and making a tackle with his feet. The end result seems to be some mix of all three. I think he was better off either trying to smother the ball or committing to making a tackle with his feet, but I think the failure to commit to one or the other probably hurts him here.</p>
<h2 id="haJroA">Conclusion</h2>
<p id="krJxSc">I think some of the criticism of Roman Burki’s shot-stopping is warranted. He gets caught in no-mans land and his footwork seems questionable on occasion, but his biggest issue seems to be hesitation in and around his box. I think it’s fair that the defense share some of the blame on that front. There’s a possibility that a goalkeeper with unshakeable confidence and a stern stewardship of their defense might alleviate some of these issues, but at the same time I think it’s unfair to lay all the blame at Burki’s feet for failing to adequately herd cats.</p>
<p id="Lh8HSr">Of course, this isn’t an exhaustive study of Burki’s shot-stopping. That would require an even longer article, and someone with greater goalkeeping expertise would be better placed to do such a study justice. But I think this highlights a couple issues that point to flaws in Burki’s shot-stopping technique.</p>
<p id="65GcDr">In Part 2 of the series, I’ll take a look at the other facets of goalkeeping, comparing Burki’s shot-prevention and distribution with other keepers in Europe’s big five leagues. Stay tuned!</p>
<p id="HgmYJA"></p>
https://www.fearthewall.com/2021/2/9/22267314/roman-burki-shot-stopping-goalkeeper-analysis-bundesliga-bvb-borussia-dortmundPaul Johnson