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Looking Around the League: Freiburg Just Keep Winning

Turns out Freiburg are the real heroes, and they’re going to dethrone Bayern Munich next weekend.

Sport-Club Freiburg v SpVgg Greuther Fürth - Bundesliga Photo by Christian Kaspar-Bartke/Getty Images

Whenever Bayern Munich suffer a heavy defeat, everyone braces themselves for the brutal response that is likely to be inflicted on their next opponents. Having lost 5-0 to Borussia Monchengladbach in the DFB-Pokal earlier in the week, plenty of fans

Bayern Munich responded to their midweek 5-0 loss to Borussia Monchengladbach with a 5-2 victory against Union Berlin. Bayern scored three in quick succession in the first 35 minutes, but Union kept plugging away, scoring two and keeping it close at 4-2. Thomas Muller scored Bayern’s fifth on the 79th minute, however, putting the game out of reach. That win kept Bayern Munich at the top of the table, just one point ahead of Borussia Dortmund, and only three points ahead of Freiburg.

Here’s a roundup of all the Bundesliga action at the weekend:


Hoffenheim 2-0 Hertha Berlin

Arminia Bielefeld 1-2 Mainz

Bayer Leverkusen 0-2 Wolfsburg

Borussia Dortmund 2-0 FC Cologne

Freiburg 3-1 Greuther Furth

Union Berlin 2-5 Bayern Munich

Eintracht Frankfurt 1-1 RB Leipzig

Augsburg 4-1 VfB Stuttgart

Borussia Monchengladbach 2-1 VfL Bochum


Big Freiburg With All Their Wins?

I keep highlighting the success of a certain team, and questioning whether they might have the capacity to sustain a real challenge this season, only for them to fall away in the weeks immediately after. This week it is Freiburg! They scored an easy 3-1 victory over Greuther Furth this weekend, but the most impressive work they’ve done this season has been in previous weeks, claiming wins over Dortmund and Wolfsburg and a draw against Wolfsburg.

At the moment, it looks highly likely that Freiburg are just on a really hot run. They’re significantly overperforming xG at the moment, averaging an xGD/90 of +0.21 compared to their GD/90 of +1, meaning they’re scoring about 0.8 more goals than expected per game. That’s unsustainable, and it’s the difference between sitting 3rd in the league and 8th, where xGD/90 would put them.

That said, while their performances are likely to be unsustainable, the longer it goes on, the more they build up a big enough buffer to survive the eventual regression to the mean. They’re currently six points clear of 5th place, so maybe they can keep the chasing pack at bay for a little while.

The bad news? They play Bayern Munich next, and they’re heading to the Allianz. Ah, well, nevertheless.

Your Thoughts?

Are Bayern Munich about to step into the Freiburg buzzsaw?