If at first you don’t succeed...

Borussia Dortmund will take on Bayern Münich at the toilet seat Allianz Arena for the second time this month. This time, the stakes are higher. Whoever wins tomorrow will go on to the DFB-Pokal final, and will likely be the favorite.

Unfortunately, the last time Dortmund went to the Allianz Arena, it was a thorough smackdown. Bayern Münich dominated almost every aspect of the match, and came out with a 4-1 victory. If there was any good news, it was that Dortmund’s squad was heavily rotated, and that the xG count was actually a lot closer than the scoreline suggested:

Obviously, Dortmund can not allow that many shots, because some of them are bound to go in, especially from Bayern’s talented players. But as this map shows, Dortmund actually did a good job of keeping Bayern out of the 6-yard box. If they can do that again and convert more of their chances, they could stand a chance.

In order to do so they need a strong defense. Let’s see what Tuchel plans on trotting out:

Crap.

I’m not a fan of that back four. I understand there aren’t that many alternatives, but Ginter and Bender have been shaky at best and catastrophic at worst this season. Schmelzer was absolutely dusted by Arjen Robben last time, and Piszczek wasn’t much better.

Other than the defense, I’m actually pretty happy with that lineup. Having a three man midfield should help contain Bayern’s passing game, and Weigl, Guerreiro, and Castro have been pretty effective when paired together. The front three looks lethal as well.

Unfortunately, Bayern seem as if they will be at full strength, other than having Neuer out. Over the past couple days it seemed as if they would be at an extreme shortage of defenders, but from the way that the media is talking about predicted lineups, all of Martinez, Alaba, Boateng, and Hummels will be available. Go figure.

Reasons to be Optimistic

• Sven Ulreich is not a good keeper
• We have Pulisic, Reus, and Auba as a front three.
• Bayern have played a ton over the past week, having played 120 minutes in Madrid and having played Mainz this weekend. And that’s got to wear on Bayern’s older players, right? I mean, Ribéry and Robben can’t play well forever, right? RIGHT???
• Mainz drew Bayern 2-2 at the Allianz on Saturday, so if they could draw, why can’t we win?
• Bayern lost to Real Madrid twice. BVB drew Real Madrid twice. Just sayin’.

That’s all I got. Kickoff is at 20:45 local time.